The one position where the New York Giants couldn't afford to lose talent --wide receiver--is now down another man thanks to the team's decision to move Kadarius Toney to the Kansas City Chiefs for a conditional third-round and a sixth-round pick in next year's draft.
Regardless of why the trade was made, what's done is done.
With the Giants heading to Seattle this weekend for what's become a very underrated yet key game on their schedule, general manager Joe Schoen now has a decision to make in these final days before the November 1 trade deadline.
Do they seek to add another receiver now, with their playoff hopes very much alive, or do they wait until next year's draft?
If the Giants are going to trade for a receiver now, their dwindling cap space only allows them to trade for a guy currently in his rookie contract. And three such players who fit that bill and whose current teams seem willing to entertain trade offers are Jerry Jeudy of the Broncos (whom Daboll coached at Alabama), KJ Hamler of the Broncos, and Chase Claypool of the Steelers.
Financially speaking, the Giants saved $784,430 in cap space with the Toney trade this year. The cost to fit Jeudy into the cap would be approximately $1.216,831, about $673,062 for Claypool, and approximately $699,350 for Hamler (less than the $784,430 cap savings resulting from the Toney trade).
Let's break down the case for and against making a trade.
The Case For
With the Giants now down their top pass-catching tight end (Daniel Bellinger) and with five of their last nine games against division opponents, if the Giants are serious about making a playoff run, they're going to need a lot more from their receivers than what they've gotten so far.
The Giants have eight receivers (including Toney and Sterling Shepard) they've thrown to this season. The receivers have accounted for 786 yards or 63.6 percent of the passing yards, but only three of the team's six touchdowns.
The Giants' passing offense is currently ranked 30th in the league, averaging 160.9 yards per game, and is ranked 28th in average passing yards per play (5.86). The offense is averaging 21 points per game, better than in past years, but hardly playoff caliber if we base "playoff caliber" on the 25-point average of those teams that made the postseason last year.
The Giants also haven't been able to throw the deep ball--a Daniel Jones strength--all that much this season. Jones has attempted just six deep passes of 20+ yards in seven games, completing two, both of which are touchdowns.
While part of the reason for the lack of deep balls can be traced to early season pass-blocking struggles, the Giants don't have a consistent deep ball threat that can take the top off of some of the weaker defensive secondaries they might face down the stretch.
Besides improving the overall passing game, there is another benefit of trading for a receiver now if such a deal can be worked out.
Regardless if the Giants make the postseason or, if they do, how far they go, the new receiver and Jones (who, at the rate he's going, should be back here next year) will get some valuable live reps in this offensive system which should give them a headstart for next year.
The short-term timing also works to the Giants' advantage. Acquiring a receiver will give that guy the bye week to take a crash course in the Giants offense. He would then have a week of practice before the Giants next take the field for their November 13 home game against the Houston Texans at home.
The Giants can then assess if the receiver (assuming he's still in his rookie contract) is worth keeping for the long term, as both Jeudy and Claypool are under contract through 2023 (with an option year being available for Jeudy in 2024 if he pans out).
The Case Against
The biggest argument not to trade for a receiver is simple: the Giants, a rebuilding team, believe that most of the long-term core building is done via the draft, and to give up assets could be detrimental to the cause.
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For proof of the emphasis that Schoen places in the draft, let's look at what he's done so far. Last year he turned nine picks into 11 through some strategic trades. And who will dispute that Schoen didn't get some outstanding value on Day 3 in guys like tight end Daniel Bellinger, safety Dane Belton, and the very promising linebacker Darrian Beavers?
Following the Toney trade, Schoen has 11 picks, including the two received from the Chiefs, one from Baltimore in the Ben Bredeson trade in 2021, before Schoen's arrival, and two projected comp picks of his own for free agent losses (Lorenzo Carter, projected to yield a sixth-rounder, and Keion Crossen, projected to yield an extra seventh-rounder).
The Giants arguably have pressing needs at receiver (even if they trade to acquire one) and cornerback, just to name a few. Although the Giants will have a healthier cap situation next year, they will likely need a chunk of that for Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, as well as unrestricted-free-agents-to-be such as defensive back Julian Love and punter Jamie Gillan, to name a few.
But let's look at the potential cost it might take to land a young receiver still on his rookie deal. NFL insider Jordan Schultz reported that the Steelers are looking for at least a second-round pick for Claypool, a second-round pick in 2020.
As for Jeudy, if the Chiefs only had to pay a compensatory third and a sixth for Kadarius Toney, who has 420 career receiving yards and no touchdowns, Jeudy, who has 1,709 career receiving yards and five touchdowns, should theoretically fetch more of a premium haul. If Denver intends to get at least a Day 2 pick for Jeudy, that might be a tough pill for Schoen to swallow.
What about the Broncos other young receiver, K.J. Hammler, who, per NFL insider Jordan Schultz has drawn more interest due to the asking price for Jeudy? Hamler is 5-foot-9 and 178 pounds and has experience playing both in the slot and outside. While he has speed, he hasn't historically been a big yards-after-catch guy, with just 27.2 percent of his career receiving yardage after the catch.
Hamler, a second-round pick in 2020, is under contract through 2023 and would only cost the Giants approximately $699,350 this year (again, less than the $784,430 cap savings resulting from the Toney trade) and only $1,583,245 next year. Realistically speaking, it's not hard to see Hamler being available for at least one Day 3 draft pick, of which the Giants have an abundance but of which Schoen likely wants to have to move around the board in earlier rounds.
What The Giants Should Do
Giving up draft picks is always tough because teams build their foundation through the draft, and the really smart teams find value on Day 3.
But there are a few factors to consider, starting with draft position. If the Giants finish with a decent record, they're going to be drafting lower in the overall order--as of right now, they'd be slated to draft No. 30th overall based on where their record stands leaguewide. (That will change once playoff seeds are determined and the results start coming in.)
As previously mentioned, the Giants will also have a healthier cap in 2023. Per Over the Cap, the Giants are projected to have $49,172,928 ineffective cap space (the cap space a team will have after signing at least 51 players and its projected rookie class to its roster), a number which should rise if the Giants cut receiver Kenny Golladay.
The thought of getting a young receiver in place now to get experience in the offense and with Jones is very appealing, and the riverboat gambler in me says the Giants should do it if there are no Day 1 or Day 2 draft picks involved.
I don't think Schoen will make any decisions until after the game against the Seahawks is in the books. Here's how I think the thought process could play out.
What Will Likely Happen
I don't think Schoen will make any decisions until after the game against the Seahawks is in the books, and I think, regardless, he might just stand pat.
If the Giants win and the Eagles lose, I think there becomes an even greater sense of urgency to consider a move (if the price is right). The Giants, who have some key division games coming up after the bye, might want to reinforce that they have what they need to remain competitive as they hunt for the division title.
That said, the giants aren't exactly one receiver away from making a deep run into the playoffs (assuming they get there). Schoen, remember, said the goal this year was to compete and rebuild for the long-term, and he's shown that he values draft picks, which are necessary to build for the future.
Whatever the decision, it won't be made until after Sunday's games in the final hours before the November 1 trade deadline.
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