The Mookie Betts trade rumors are hot again, and this time it’s looking more and more like the Boston Red Sox will move their superstar right fielder before spring training to the San Diego Padres or Los Angeles Dodgers for mostly or all prospects.
Why would the Red Sox trade a star who just two years ago was the American League MVP for a World Series championship team?
First off, Betts will be a free agent after the 2020 season, and the four-time All-Star has made it clear that he’s unwilling to sign an extension.
Also, Red Sox owner John Henry wants to get under the $208 million luxury-tax threshold to reset his franchise’s penalty percentage when it goes above in future years like the Yankees did in 2018. Boston currently has a projected $230 million payroll counting Betts’ $27 million salary, so dumping his contract would do the trick.
Here’s another reason: The Red Sox didn’t contend last season when they finished 84-78 with basically that same players that won it all in 2018, and they might not be any better in 2020 even if Betts stays. After all, Boston’s only significant offseason moves were firing manager Alex Cora, letting 2016 AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello walk, and filling the rotation hole by taking a flier on lefty Martin Perez, who signed a one-year deal for $6 million after pitching to a 5.59 ERA from 2018-19.
Thus, all signs point to Betts being moved before spring training.
“If I had to guess, I would say he is going to be traded,” MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal predicted on Hot Stove. “I wouldn’t have said that a week ago.”
Who would benefit the most if the Red Sox trade Betts?
Maybe Boston’s top rival.
Here are two ways the Yankees can benefit big-time if the Red Sox trade Betts:
1. WEAKER AL EAST
Without Betts, the Yankees would have a much easier path to making it two division titles in a row even though the Tampa Bay Rays, like last season, figure to be their toughest AL East competition.
Even though the Yankees seemingly greatly improved last season’s 103-win club by signing Gerrit Cole, the Red Sox could be dangerous if Betts stays plus their two aces, Chris Sale and David Price, stay healthy and have a big year. All three players had standout seasons in 2018 when Boston won a franchise record 108 regular-season games, then coasted to a championship winning 11 of 14 playoff games.
With Betts, the Red Sox perhaps would add a difference maker at the July 31 trade deadline, too, since they’d probably be guaranteed at the point to going over the luxury-tax threshold again.
But if Betts is traded for prospects, then Boston might be hard pressed even being a .500 team in 2020.
“They don’t even have a manager yet,” MLB Network host Christopher Russo said High Heat. “They have a young GM. They have the Yankees, who are sitting there as a behemoth in the division. So maybe the Red Sox, without telling us, are going to throw up the white flag.
“If the Red Sox trade Betts and get a couple of prospects back … I don’t want anybody in the Red Sox’s front office telling me, ‘We’re trying to win in 2020.’ The Red Sox trading Betts is throwing up the white flag.”
2. HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
With Betts in the National League, the Yankees will have a better shot at beating up on the Red Sox like they did in 2019 when they won 14 of 19 meetings, and this time it could lead to home-field advantage in the playoffs.
If the Yanks had home field in 2017 and 2019, maybe they get past the sign-stealing Houston Astros in the ALCS both times instead of being ousted while going a combined 1-6 at Minute Maid Park.
Regardless, if the Yankees get to 103 wins for the second consecutive year in 2020, they probably won’t finish with the second-best record in the league because there’s no way Houston is winning anywhere close to 108 again without Cole. Also, it’s unlikely that any other AL club - the Minnesota Twins included - would beat out a 100-plus win Yankees’ team for best record.
Randy Miller may be reached at rmiller@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @RandyJMiller. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
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January 30, 2020 at 07:08PM
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MLB rumors: 2 big ways Red Sox trading Mookie Betts would benefit Yankees - NJ.com
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