Sometimes You Need to 'Throw a Sacrifice Into the Volcano' When Trading - TheStreet

One of the many staples of the financial media is advice on market timers. There is endless predictions and observations about what the market is going to do next. Some of it is helpful and some of it isn't, but none of it will address your specific situation.

I have found that the best indication of whether I will lose money in the near term is whether I am losing money today. My portfolio profit and loss statement provided the best insight into what is going to happen next. I'm typically better off if I sell things when I am losing money than if I make new buys and try to catch a bounce.

The last time the market had a major correction was back in late 2018. In almost every case, if you had sold stocks on the first day of substantial losses you would have ended up further ahead than if you just sat there and anticipated that a bounce would come quickly. Eventually, the losses were recouped for the major indexes, but it took many months.

For most market players, the biggest obstacle is inertia. It is far easier to just sit there and think "these are good stocks, they can't go much lower and they will bounce back quickly when the market turns."

That may sound like logical and prudent thinking, but it is often glaringly wrong. You'd be better off if you sold and then bought stocks back days or weeks later if the market undergoes a major turn. It is just a hard thing to do.

I deal with the problem of inertia by using a "throw a sacrifice into the volcano" approach to investing. Even if I'm holding a stock I like and am convinced it will eventual do well, I make some sacrificial sales. I consider it a tribute to the market gods and has nothing to do with trying to time buys or sales.

Almost always I feel some sense of relief when I do this and I quickly discover it is very easy to buy back shares if I want. The sacrificial sale breaks the inertia of holding a poor stock and helps you make smarter strategic sales.

I'm taking some losses on long positions now, and even though I like most of the stocks I'm holding, I'm going to reduce some positions as a tribute to the gods. I may have to buy back those shares at higher prices but that is better than sitting like a deer in the headlines as the selling momentum gains traction.

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February 25, 2020 at 12:46AM
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Sometimes You Need to 'Throw a Sacrifice Into the Volcano' When Trading - TheStreet
"Trading" - Google News
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